AXPZ20 KNHC 050320
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jul 5 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A tropical wave is analyzed along 89W north of 03N into northern
Central America, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is helping
to induce convection from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala.
A tropical wave is along 101W north of 04N into southern Mexico,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave
A tropical wave is analyzed along 112W south of 18N, moving west
at 10 to 15 kt. A 1008 mb surface low is analyzed along the wave
axis near 14N112W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong
convection is on the east side of the low from 13N to 15N between
110W and 112W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 08N74W to
1010 mb low pressure near 09N95W to 1010 mb low pressure near
14N112W to 1009 mb low pressure near 12N125W to beyond 10N140W.
A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 13N to 15N between 110W and 112W. Another cluster of
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 12N to 16N between
115W and 118W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 13N to 15N between 118W and 123W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A 1008 mb low
pressure is analyzed on the 0 UTC surface map near 14N112W.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur
during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at
about 10 kt. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook states that this
system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the
next 48 hours. Seas of 6-8 ft are noted just S of the Revillagigedo
Islands in association with this system.
A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds. This weather
pattern will persist through the middle of the week. A new swell
event from the N will reach the forecast waters N of Punta
Eugenia lat Mon into Mon night building seas to 8-9 ft. This
swell event will propagate across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro
through Wed with seas of 5-7 ft.
Expect fresh to locally strong southerly winds over the northern
Gulf of California early this week between building high pressure
over north central Mexico and deepening low pressure over the
lower Colorado River valley.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form south
of the coast of southeastern Mexico and Guatemala in a couple of
days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by the middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward,
well south of the coast of southern Mexico. This could bring an
increase in winds and seas across the offshore forecast waters.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected in and downstream of
the Gulf of Papagayo during the next several days. Moderate to
occasionally fresh SW winds will prevail over the waters south of
10N E of 100W. Seas are forecast to increase to 7-8 ft across the
offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala on Mon
likely in association with the developing low pressure south
of the coast of southeastern Mexico and Guatemala.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 115W. As previously
mentioned, a couple of low pressure systems are noted along the
monsoon trough W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and the lows will support a large area of moderate to fresh
trade winds north of the monsoon trough to about 20N. Fresh to
strong SW winds will also converge into the southern flanks of
lows south of the monsoon trough between 110W and 125W.
Long period cross-equatorial S to SW swell across most of the
tropical east Pacific Ocean will gradually subside the next
couple of days, with sea heights expected to be 5 to 7 ft.