AXPZ20 KNHC 130905
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jun 13 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Carlos is centered near 11.9N 125.3W at 13/0900
UTC moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
Numerous moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 123W and
128W. A turn toward the west-southwest at a slower forward speed
is forecast to occur this afternoon and continue through
Tuesday. Some additional slight strengthening is forecast during
the next 24 to 36 hours.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to a 1009 mb low pressure
centered near 15N97W to 13N104W to 14N116W. The ITCZ begins near
09N130W and continues to 07N140W. Aside from the convection
associated with Tropical Storm Carlos, clusters of numerous
moderate to strong convection are N of 00N E of 81W, from 09N to
13N between 85W and 95W, and from 08N to 13N between 109W and
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A 1020 mb high near 27N130W extends a ridge ESE to just west of the
Baja California Norte offshore waters. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and lower pressure over the Gulf of California
and western Mexico continues to support fresh to strong NW winds
across the Baja California Norte and Cabo San Lazaro offshore
waters. Seas are to 8 ft in this region. Similar conditions will
continue through early next week.
Light to gentle variable winds over the offshores between
Jalisco to Guerrero will prevail through Wed. Showers and
thunderstorms remain poorly organized in association with a weak
area of low pressure located about a hundred miles south-
southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally conducive for additional development over
the next day or so. By early next week, the system is forecast to
interact with land and a larger disturbance developing to its
north, and further development is not anticipated. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of
Central America and southern Mexico through early next week. See
products from your local meteorological service for more
Moderate to fresh SE winds over the southern portion of the Gulf
of California will extend gradually towards the northern gulf
through Mon. Seas will be up to 3 ft.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are forecast for the offshore
waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua through late Tue with seas to
7 ft in SW swell. Moderate S to SW winds across the offshore
waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador are reaching
the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama tonight. These
conditions are forecast to continue through Tue.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section for information on newly
formed Tropical Storm Carlos.
Elsewhere, high pressure continues to dominate the waters north
of 15N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and ITCZ is
supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds from 07N to 22N W of
120W. Light to gentle winds are within the ridge N of 22N and
west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere with
seas to 8 ft. SW swell into the waters south of the equator and
E of 120W is supporting seas in the 6-7 ft range. The swell is
forecast to subside by late Sun.