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 Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion Atlantic | East Pacific 
AXPZ20 KNHC 130905

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jun 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.


Tropical Storm Carlos is centered near 11.9N 125.3W at 13/0900
UTC moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
Numerous moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 123W and
128W. A turn toward the west-southwest at a slower forward speed
is forecast to occur this afternoon and continue through 
Tuesday. Some additional slight strengthening is forecast during
the next 24 to 36 hours. 
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for 
more details.


The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to a 1009 mb low pressure
centered near 15N97W to 13N104W to 14N116W. The ITCZ begins near
09N130W and continues to 07N140W. Aside from the convection 
associated with Tropical Storm Carlos, clusters of numerous
moderate to strong convection are N of 00N E of 81W, from 09N to
13N between 85W and 95W, and from 08N to 13N between 109W and


A 1020 mb high near 27N130W extends a ridge ESE to just west of the
Baja California Norte offshore waters. The pressure gradient 
between this ridge and lower pressure over the Gulf of California
and western Mexico continues to support fresh to strong NW winds
across the Baja California Norte and Cabo San Lazaro offshore
waters. Seas are to 8 ft in this region. Similar conditions will
continue through early next week.

Light to gentle variable winds over the offshores between 
Jalisco to Guerrero will prevail through Wed. Showers and 
thunderstorms remain poorly organized in association with a weak 
area of low pressure located about a hundred miles south- 
southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Environmental conditions 
appear only marginally conducive for additional development over 
the next day or so. By early next week, the system is forecast to
interact with land and a larger disturbance developing to its 
north, and further development is not anticipated. Regardless of 
development, heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of 
Central America and southern Mexico through early next week. See 
products from your local meteorological service for more 

Moderate to fresh SE winds over the southern portion of the Gulf
of California will extend gradually towards the northern gulf 
through Mon. Seas will be up to 3 ft. 


Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are forecast for the offshore
waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua through late Tue with seas to
7 ft in SW swell. Moderate S to SW winds across the offshore
waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador are reaching 
the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama tonight. These
conditions are forecast to continue through Tue.


Please see the Special Features section for information on newly
formed Tropical Storm Carlos.

Elsewhere, high pressure continues to dominate the waters north 
of 15N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds from 07N to 22N W of 
120W. Light to gentle winds are within the ridge N of 22N and 
west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere with 
seas to 8 ft. SW swell into the waters south of the equator and 
E of 120W is supporting seas in the 6-7 ft range. The swell is 
forecast to subside by late Sun.


Tropical 3.3
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