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 Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion Atlantic | East Pacific 
AXNT20 KNHC 212351

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2320 UTC.



A 1011 mb low has developed in the western Atlantic, located near
28N77W at 21/2100 UTC, and will deepen over the next few days 
leading to a tight pressure gradient. Gale-force winds will  
develop by 22/ 0 UTC from 31N-30N between 77W-79W. These gale- 
force winds will come close to storm force especially in the next 
day and spread from 30N-27N between 70W-80W as the low meanders 
slowly eastward. Seas will range from 18-24 ft. Gale-force winds
are expected to continue through midday Thursday. See the latest 
NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
for further details.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 
08N13W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 02N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 00N- 07N between 11W-24W. 


A 1039 mb high is centered over the middle Mississippi Valley in 
the U.S. with the ridging extending across the Gulf of Mexico. A 
surface trough is noted in the western Bay of Campeche from 23N98W
to 18N94W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong 
north-northeast winds across the central and eastern Gulf. 
Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted in the western Gulf. 

High pressure across the central U.S. will continue to drive 
strong N winds across the eastern Gulf through tonight behind a 
NW Caribbean cold front. As the high pressure slides east by 
Wednesday, winds across the eastern Gulf will weaken and strong 
southerly return flow will develop over the NW Gulf. A cold front 
moving into the NW Gulf by Thursday will shift fresh return flow 
to the N central then NE Gulf between Thursday night and Friday 
which will bring an end the strong winds. This front will shift 
slowly E across the Gulf and reach from the Florida Big Bend 
region to Tampico Mexico by Friday evening.


A cold front extends from east-central Cuba to northern Honduras,
from 21N79W to 16N85W. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
seen along and 70 nm ahead of the front. Upper level ridging 
dominates the eastern Caribbean which is inhibiting deep 
convection. Behind the cold front, strong to near gale-force 
northerly winds are noted in the NW Caribbean. The rest of the 
Caribbean has gentle to moderate trade winds. 

Long-period N swell producing high seas and hazardous
surf across the Tropical North Atlantic and along exposed 
Atlantic coasts of the Lesser Antilles will diminish on Wednesday.
A stationary front that stretches from central Cuba to central 
Honduras this afternoon should move southeastward as a cold front 
and reach from E Cuba to near the Panama-Nicaragua border by
Wednesday afternoon, then dissipate by Thursday afternoon. Behind
this front, strong N winds and high seas are expected. By late 
Thursday, conditions will become quiescent across the waters 
through at least Sunday night as a weak Bermuda High develops to 
the north.


Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning over 
the west Atlantic waters.

A cold front stretches across the western Atlantic from 31N62W to
east-central Cuba near 22N77W. The 1011 mb low associated with 
the gale-force winds has a trough extending east of the low from 
28N77W to 27N73W. Isolated thunderstorms are noted along and north
of this trough. A stationary front is noted across the central 
Atlantic from 31N34W to 15N39W to 15N59W. Scattered moderate 
convection is near the northern portion of the front from 27N-33N 
between 31N-34W. 

Diffluence from an upper level trough in the central Atlantic is 
aiding in scattered showers moving across the eastern Atlantic to 
the western African coast, including the Cabo Verde Islands. This 
activity is observed from 06N-17N between 16W- 35W. A 1021 mb high
is analyzed near 29N49W. The latest scatterometer data depicts 
fresh to strong NE winds behind the cold front in the western 
Atlantic, with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it. Near 
the stationary front in the central Atlantic, strong to near gale-
force cyclonic winds are noted near a low from 30N-34N between 

Gales will develop to the northwest and west of the low tonight 
through Wednesday, while the low moves slowly northeastward 
toward Bermuda and intensifies through Friday. N gales will shift
northeastward with the low and exit the NE waters by Friday. The 
associated cold front will move southeastward through Thursday 
and reach the SE Bahamas by Wednesday afternoon, the Mona Passage
Thursday afternoon, then dissipate by Friday afternoon.


Tropical 3.3
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