AXPZ20 KNHC 111601
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1526 UTC Tue Aug 11 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Hurricane Elida is centered near 21.3N 113.8W at 11/1500 UTC
moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm of
the center. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with a
decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several
days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for
A tropical wave axis is near 95W, extending southward from the
southern Mexico to 05N. A 1009 mb low pressure is located near
10N where the wave axis intersects the monsoon trough. The wave
is moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted north of 10N between 94W and 102W.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development
thereafter, and this system will likely become a tropical
depression late this week or over the weekend while it moves
generally west-northwestward. Formation chance through 48
hours is low, while it is high through 5 days.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1009 mb low pressure
near 10N95W to 11N107W. The monsoon trough resumes from 13N117W
to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted north of 07N east of 80W as well as from 08N to 12N from
117W to 135W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N
to 13N between 102W and 110W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the special features section above for more on
Hurricane Elida. Hurricane Warnings are in place for the Zone 13
for Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro to 250 nm offshores as well
as Zone 15 for Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas to 250 nm
offshore. Peak seas in the southern corner of Zone 13 may reach
20 ft tonight, while peak seas in Zone 15 are currently near 25
Aside from Hurricane Elida, fresh to strong northerly gap winds,
primarily late night and early morning, should occur in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec through the end of the week. An area of low
pressure is forecast to develop south of the southwestern coast
of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development thereafter, and this system will likely
become a tropical depression late this week or over the weekend
while it moves generally west-northwestward. Peak seas from this
system are expected to be near 15 ft on Fri and Sat, though this
may need to be boosted significantly if the system does develop
into a tropical cyclone.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh S winds will persist south of the monsoon
trough through Thu night. A moderate north-south pressure
gradient across Central America will promote fresh to strong NE
winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region starting mid-week. An
area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days south of
the coast of Central America. Gradual development of this system
is possible, and a tropical depression could form this weekend
while it moves generally west-northwestward.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the special features section above for more
information about Hurricane Elida.
The subtropical ridge extends across the waters north of 20N.
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted north of the
monsoon trough to near 20N and west of 120W, with gentle to
moderate breezes elsewhere north of the monsoon trough.
Recent altimeter data confirmed seas to 8 ft just northwest of
the discussion area. This is longer period NW swell and it is
starting to reach the waters north of 28N west of 138W, but
should subside within 36 to 48 hours.
Farther south, monsoon flow has freshened south of the monsoon
trough between 100W and 120W. The locally generated wind waves
has combined with a subsiding southerly swell, maintaining seas
in the 5 to 7 ft range roughly from 05N and 10N between 105W and
120W. Seas will build from roughly to 6 to 8 ft 05N to 10N
between 120W and 130W by mid week. Low pressure persists along
the monsoon trough near 12N126W. This low as a low probability of
development in the next couple of days, but a high probability
through the next five days as it moves farther west.