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 Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion Atlantic | East Pacific 
 
AXNT20 KNHC 290555
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1254 AM EST Sat Feb 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on  0 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HONDURAS...

Periods of heavy rainfall are expected through Saturday night 
across northern Honduras, in association with strong northerly 
onshore flow behind a slowly-moving cold front. It is possible 
that persistent heavy rainfall may lead to flash floods and 
mudslides. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local 
or national meteorological service.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border of 
Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 
03N20W to 01N27W, curving to the Equator along 35W, to the coast 
of Brazil near 03S40W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to 
locally strong from 07N southward, especially along the coast of 
Brazil and the Equator along 48W/49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is 
to the north of 22N98W 22N90W, beyond the Florida Keys.

A 1029 mb high pressure center is near 26N95W. One ridge extends 
from the high center to Florida near 27N82W, and to the Atlantic 
Ocean near 26N72W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans 
the Gulf of Mexico. of 28/2100 UTC, a 1029 mb high is centered 
over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 26N95W. 

A weak frontal boundary will move across the NE Gulf of Mexico 
tonight. High pressure will prevail across the region, 
elsewhere, through Tuesday. The next cold front will move into 
the NW Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday night. The front will shift 
rapidly across the Gulf on Wednesday. Gale-force wind conditions 
are possible, to the west of the front, off the coast of 
Veracruz and Tampico, in Mexico, on Tuesday night and Wednesday. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to 23N70W, 
across the Turks Islands, through the Windward Passage, across 
Jamaica, into NE Nicaragua. Precipitation: broken to overcast 
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the west of 
the line that runs from SE Hispaniola to the coast of Panama 
along 80W.

Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds and 
possible rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean and in the 
Caribbean Sea from 14N to 23N between 52W and 68W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that 
ended at 29/ 0 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE 
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.04 in 
Guadeloupe. 

The current cold front will continue to move eastward. The front 
will stall and dissipate from Hispaniola to Costa Rica this 
weekend. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will prevail NW of the 
front through Sunday, including in the Windward Passage. Fresh 
to strong winds are expected near the coast of Colombia each 
night through the middle of the upcoming week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1015 mb low pressure center, that is 
near 31N64W, to 23N70W, across the Turks Islands, through the 
Windward Passage, across Jamaica, into NE Nicaragua. 
Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and 
possible rainshowers are to the west of the line that runs from 
the northern border of Haiti and the Dominican Republic beyond 
32N55W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period 
that ended at 29/ 0 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN 
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, 
are: 0.17 in Bermuda. 

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N35W. A 
trough extends from the cyclonic center to 10N48W. Comparatively 
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 
400 nm to 1  nm to the SW of the upper level cyclonic center.
A surface trough is along 32W/33W from 20N to 30N. Broken to 
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 
250 nm on either side of 10N38W 19N31W 29N22W.

The current cold front will stall in the far SE part of the 
forecast area on Sunday, where it will dissipate through Monday. 
High pressure will build in the wake of the front, and prevail 
through midweek, when the next cold front approaches the SE 
coast of the United States. 

$$
mt


 
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