AXPZ20 KNHC 240305
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Sep 24 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 21.0N 122.7W at 0300 UTC,
moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150
nm east-southeast of the center.
Lowell will move west-northwest, then westward during the next
48 to 72 hours. A slow weakening trend is expected as the storm
encounters a less favorable environment. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Storm Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to 12N99W to 15N108W. The monsoon trough continues SW of
Lowell near 15N124W to 11N133W. The ITCZ continues from 11N133W
to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 06N to 10N between 82W and 97W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 12N between 107W and 117W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Weak riding is between northern Baja California and Tropical
Storm Lowell. This is maintaining light to gentle northerly
winds across the region with seas to 7 ft. On Friday, northerly
swell will reach the Baja California peninsula, and continue
through Saturday night, with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Farther south,
light to gentle winds are expected the next several days, with
seas to 5 ft.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate south to southwest winds prevail south of 11N and the
monsoon trough with gentle winds north of the monsoon trough.
Combined seas are currently to 7 ft in a mix of wind waves and
southerly swell. Winds south of the monsoon trough will increase
tonight and Thursday with seas to 8 ft. By Friday, moderate
south to southwesterly winds will return with seas 6-7 ft.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A cold front will stall NW of the area from 34N136W to 30N145W
late tonight. Associated NW swell from the front will move into
the far NW waters, raising seas to 8-12 ft tonight through Fri.
By the weekend, seas are expected to be 8-10 ft.