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 Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion Atlantic | East Pacific 
 
AXPZ20 KNHC 290839
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
839 UTC Sat Feb 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure extending from
the western Gulf of Mexico southward across eastern Mexico is 
supporting a strong pressure gradient across the isthmus of
Tehuantepec. A scatterometer pass from 03 UTC indicated 
northerly gale force winds across the area, which are forecast 
to continue through tonight. Seas across this area will peak 
around 18-21 ft, then subside by the end of the weekend as the 
gale force winds diminish. Looking ahead, another gale force gap 
wind event is possible Wed night.

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient across
Central America and the western Caribbean is supporting near gale
force winds across the Papagayo region as noted by an earlier 
scatterometer pass. Winds are forecast to increase to minimal 
gale force today, then continue into early Sun before 
diminishing Sun afternoon. Seas will build as high as 14 ft 
downstream by tonight. Winds will remain strong through early 
next week, approaching near gale each night.

Pacific High Seas Gale Warning: A broad mid to upper-level trough
W of 140W reaches from an upper low near 24N147W through the
Hawaiian Islands. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of the
upper trough is inducing a pair of surface troughs along 135W
from 05N to 25N. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
active from 08N to 14N between 135W and 140W. The enhanced 
pressure gradient between the troughs and very strong high 
pressure building northwest of the region is supporting fresh to
near gale force winds which are forecast to strengthen to 
minimal gale force by late this afternoon. These winds will 
continue into early Sun before shifting west of 140W along with 
the surface troughing. Associated seas will build to 12-17 ft 
within the strongest winds. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03/HSFEP2 NHC or at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 07N85W to 03N95W to 08N135W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N
between 135W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
about a gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Baja California 
offshore waters with a weak pressure pattern in place across the 
region. The pattern will start to change later today as a sharp
mid to upper level trough approaches the area from the north. An
associated surface low will form over the southwest United 
States, along with a weak cold front moving into Baja California
Norte and the northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong SW to
W gap winds will develop over the northern Gulf of California
starting tonight, reaching near gale force by late Sun with seas
to 7 ft. The upper trough will shift eastward through early next
week, allowing the front to weaken and stall over the central
Gulf of California Mon into Tue. Meanwhile, fresh to strong 
winds and very large northerly swell will enter the waters off 
Baja California Norte between the low pressure inland and 
building high pressure farther west. Seas will approach 18 ft 
near Guadalupe Island by late Mon. Seas will be 8 to 12 ft in NW 
swell by late Tue, from the Revillagigedo Islands to off Baja 
California Norte by Tue. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
diminish into mid week as high pressure builds over the area,
although NW swell to 9 ft will linger near the Revillagigedo
Islands. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
about a gale warning in the Papagayo region.

Large NW swell generated by the Tehuantepec gales will combine 
with easterly swell from the Papagayo region to maintain rough 
seas offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador through this weekend.
Seas will reach as high as 15 ft well offshore of Guatemala later
today. Wave heights will subside by early next week as the gap 
winds diminish.

Elsewhere, strong winds will pulse over and downstream of the 
Gulf of Panama through this weekend. Seas will peak to 9 ft each
day well downstream of the Gulf, diminishing by mid week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
about a Pacific high seas gale warning.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds prevail W of 120W north of 
the ITCZ to 20N. Seas are generally 8 to 11 ft in this region. 
Elsewhere, a large area of 8 to 12 ft seas in N to NE swell 
extends well downstream of the Tehuantepec region.

NW swell of 8-10 ft over the NW corner will gradually spread to
the southeast through the weekend. A cold front will move into 
the waters north of 20N Sun through Sun night, followed by 
strengthening NW winds and building seas. Associated and 
reinforcing NW swell will move southward across the region 
through early next week, with seas 12 ft or greater expected 
north of 25N east of 130W by Mon night. Marine conditions are 
forecast to gradually improve Tue through Wed night with a weaker
pressure pattern in place.

$$
Christensen


 
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