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 Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion Atlantic | East Pacific 
 
AXPZ20 KNHC 302107
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1824 UTC Sat May 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy rainfall in Central America...

A Central American Gyre is over the eastern North Pacific, with 
the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the 
discussion waters N of the equator and E of 100W, including 
portions of southern Mexico and Central America. Moderate to 
strong winds are noted across much of these waters, with seas in 
the 6-9 ft range. Numerous moderate and scattered strong 
convection is noted across much of these waters, particularly N 
of 06N between 86W and 96W. Areas of thunderstorms are impacting
portions of Central America from the W part of Nicaragua 
northward to Southern Mexico. The gyre will move slowly 
northward, gradually encompassing much of Central America and 
southern Mexico within the next 24-48 hours. Winds around the 
gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture into portions of 
Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next several 
days. This will create a dangerous situation for these areas with
an extended period of active weather, and periods of heavy 
rainfall, through the weekend and into next week, especially over
southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, western 
Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E of Veracruz and 
eastern Oaxaca. This will bring the potential for life- 
threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive
the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous 
terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local weather 
service for more details.

Tropical cyclogenesis is possible in association with Central 
American Gyres, and a depression (TD Two-E) has developed within
the gyre circulation. The depression will move inland over 
Guatemala Sunday and dissipate Sun night. However, the larger 
threat will continue to be the Central American Gyre, which will 
linger across Central America and southern Mexico well after the 
TD dissipates.

...Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning...
The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure along the
eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental and the Central
American Gyre is producing gap winds of 30 kt as depicted by the
latest ASCAT pass. With little change in the synoptic 
environment, and the added component of nocturnal drainage flow, 
winds will briefly increase to gale force tonight over the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec. The area of high pressure will weaken enough to 
diminish winds below gale force Sunday. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to TD Two-E near 12N91W 
to low pres near 08N118W to low pres near 10N130W to 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 04N E
of 86W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted N
of 06N between 86W and 96W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection from 04N to 10N between 96W and 120W. Scattered 
moderate convection from 05N to 10N between 120W and 130W, and 
from 08N to 10N between 130W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on the 
Central American Gyre, and embedded TD Two-E, as well as the
gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Outside of the winds and seas associated to those features, 
moderate to fresh winds prevail off Baja California Norte as 
well as just off Cabo San Lucas. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere off Baja California Sur, and light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the open 
waters off Mexico, and in the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of 
California.

The Central American Gyre is progressing across the forecast 
waters toward the northern portion of Central America and 
southern Mexico. TD Two-E has developed within the gyre 
circulation. The depression will move inland over Guatemala on 
Sunday. These features will bring active weather over southern 
Mexico offshore waters this weekend into early next week. In 
addition, there will be a brief period of gale force winds over 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. Elsewhere, high pressure will 
build over the northern waters. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on the 
Central American Gyre, and embedded TD Two-E.

Outside of winds and seas associated to the Central American 
Gyre and TD Two-E, moderate to fresh winds prevail N of 02N, and
gentle to moderate winds S of 02N. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range 
prevail across the area.

The Central American Gyre is progressing across the forecast 
waters toward the northern portion of Central America and 
southern Mexico. TD Two-E has developed within the gyre 
circulation. The depression will move inland over Guatemala on 
Sunday. Hazardous marine conditions will prevail over the 
forecast waters west of Costa Rica and northward to Guatemala 
through early next week, with large clusters of thunderstorms, 
fresh to strong winds, and building seas. Elsewhere, long- period
SW swell will continue propagating across the region through 
early next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure has started to slowly build across the northern 
waters. The pressure gradient between the building high pressure 
and low pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate
to locally fresh winds N of the monsoon trough to near 12N and W
of 125W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of the 
monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail S of 
the monsoon trough E of 120W, and light to gentle southerly winds
prevail W of 120W. Seas over the discussion area are in the 5-7 
ft range.

A high pressure ridge will continue to build across the northern
waters this weekend, with little change in marine conditions 
expected over these outer waters over the next couple days.

$$
AL


 
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