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 Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion Atlantic | East Pacific 
 
AXNT20 KNHC 201804
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
1805 UTC Wed Jan 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the area will 
continue to support strong to near gale force winds over the 
south-central Caribbean through the latter part of the week. 
Nocturnal pressure fluctuations will cause these winds to pulse
to gale force within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia this 
morning,
and again, this evening. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra 
Leone near 07N12W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 
01N49W. Scattered showers are noted from 01N to 06N between 16W
and 28W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends 1031 mb high pressure over Arkansas 
across the Gulf of Mexico. This is supporting moderate to 
locally fresh E winds south of 25N, with 4 to 6 ft seas, and 
gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 25N with 1 to 3 ft 
seas. Relatively warm, moist SE flow over cooler shelf waters 
along the north Texas coast are supporting the potential for sea 
fog this morning. A surface trough is analyzed in the Bay of 
Campeche near 18N93W to 22N96W. Elsewhere, no significant 
weather is observed. 

For the forecast, the ridge will extend across the northern Gulf 
Through Fri. A trough will form off the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula tonight, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong
winds. A cold front will move over the northern Gulf Sat and
become stationary into Sat night. The western part of the front
will begin to lift north as a warm front late Sat night through
Sun, while the rest of the front dissipates as Atlantic high
pressure builds westward across the area through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight gradient due to high pressure north of the area is
supporting moderate to fresh NE winds in the eastern and central
and winds to gale force continue north of Colombia through mid 
morning. Fresh trade winds persist over the eastern Caribbean. 
Seas are 8 to 13 ft over the southwest Caribbean due in part to
NE to E swell. Seas are reaching 8 ft off Belize and Quintana 
Roo due to the long fetch of fresh NE winds from the Cuban 
coast. 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Regional radar 
suggests scattered showers persist in the trade wind flow across 
the eastern Caribbean. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area is supporting 
Fresh to strong winds and building seas over the southeast and 
south-central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force off 
the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong northeast winds 
are also expected in the lee of eastern Cuba through tonight. 
Winds and seas diminish Thu through Sat as the high pressure 
weakens, although strong winds will persist off Colombia that 
could reach near gale force Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 60W: A cold front reaches from 30N48W to 25N60W, then is 
stationary to the southern Bahamas. Scattered showers are noted 
along the front and scattered moderate north of 28N. Farther 
west, a surface ridge extending west to east along roughly 28N 
is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in 
open waters south of 25N, and gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 
6 ft seas north of 25N, except 2 to 5 ft north of the northern 
Bahamas and off the northeast Florida coast. No significant 
shower activity is evident.

For the forecast, a stationary front extending from near 24N65W 
to the Turks and Caicos will dissipate tonight. A new cold front 
will move southward into waters between northeastern Florida and 
Bermuda. The main portion of this front will lift to the 
northeast of the area Thu, leaving a trailing stationary segment 
to dissipate along 27N by Thu evening. This front will be 
followed by yet another cold front that will move southward 
across the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida late Fri, reach 
from near 31N60W to 27N70W and to West Palm Beach, Florida Sat 
night, then begin to weaken as it reaches the far southern 
waters late Sun. High pressure will build over the area in the 
wake of this front. 

Farther east, a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 27N30W is 
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds south of 25N 
where seas are 7 to 9 ft in a mix of N swell and shorter period
wind waves. NW swell is reaching as far south as 30N between 45W
and 65W, but 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of 25N. A 
sharp upper trough reaches from the Canary Islands to near 
09N41W. Upper divergence southeast of the upper trough is 
supporting moderate showers within 480 nm to the southeast of 
the upper trough. 

$$
MTorres


 
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