AXPZ20 KNHC 201615
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jan 20 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 05N97W to 08N114W to
04.5N129W to 06N135W. The ITCZ continues from 06N135W to beyond
07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted north
of the monsoon trough from 07N to 20N between 102W and 110W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh to strong southerly winds prevail on either side of the
Baja California peninsula, in association with a 1005 mb surface
low near 28.5N120W. This low is expected to drift eastward and
rapidly weaken today, producing fresh south to southwest winds
across the region through this afternoon. Winds are expected to
diminish quickly tonight and Thu as the low moves onshore across
Baja California Norte. Large NW swell propagating through the
Baja waters during this time will maintain seas in excess of 8 ft
through Thu, except in the Gulf of California.
Strong northerly winds are expected to continue across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region as high pressure continues to extend into
the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico
will shift NE and gradually weaken the local pressure gradient
through Thu. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse to just below
gale force again tonight, and then to near 30 kt nightly through
early Fri with downstream seas peaking at 10 ft each morning.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong offshore gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo
region at night through Sun. Moderate northerly winds will pulse
to fresh across the Gulf of Panama through Thu. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. Seas will build slightly
from west to east in mixed long period S and W swell through
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A deep-layer 1005 mb low pressure area moved moved southward
overnight and is centered offshore of Baja California Norte near
28.5N120W. This low will continue to produce strong winds around
the periphery during the next 6 to 12 hours. Maximum seas of
around 16 ft are found just to the NW of the low near 29N125W,
in the area of strongest N winds. The low will drift eastward
and rapidly weaken later today.
High pressure NW of the area extends a ridge into the northwest
forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds north of the convergence zone to near 22N
west of 130W. Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a mix
of NW swell and NE to E wind waves, which is expected to persist
Large NW swell continues moving southeast across the open waters
of the northeast Pacific with seas up to 17 ft near the surface
low with gale-force winds near 29N122W. NW swell will maintain
seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of
115W through Thu. Seas will subside across the open waters by the
end of the week, with the next significant north to northwest
swell event expected to arrive this weekend.