AXPZ20 KNHC 042209 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2207 UTC Sat Jul 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 88W north of 03N into Central 
America, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 88W and 100W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 99W/100W north of 02N into 
southern Mexico, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is occurring near this tropical wave.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 110W south of 18N, moving west
at 10 to 15 kt. A surface low is analyzed along the wave axis
near 13N110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to
15N between 105W and 110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 1010 mb low pressure 
near 09N95W to 15N107W to 1010 mb low pressure near 13N110W to 
1011 mb low pressure near 12N125W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N east of 
90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N 
between 88W and 100W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong 
convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 115W and 125W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated gap winds a 
little over 20 kt through the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the result of
a tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico and a pair of tropical waves passing westward to the 
south of the region. These winds have likely diminished this
afternoon, but fresh gap winds are possible through the early
part of the week, mainly during the early mornings, with seas
downstream reaching 6 or 7 ft with an added component of longer
period southerly swell.

Farther north, a ridge extends from 1028 mb high pressure near 
3N137W to south of Cabo San Lucas. A tropical wave is passing
west of 110W, with an attendant 1010 mb surface low along the
wave about 300 nm south of Socorro Island. Fresh to strong
easterly winds are likely across the eastern Revillagigedo
Islands currently with 5 to 7 ft seas. These winds and seas
should diminish tonight as the low moves farther west. A few
showers beyond 200 nm off the coast of Jalisco and east of low 
pressure will diminish this evening. The low has a low chance of
tropical development.

The ridge is maintaining generally moderate NW winds across the 
waters off Baja California, and light to gentle NW breezes over 
open waters off Mexico south of 20N. Expect fresh southerly winds over
the northern Gulf of California early in the week between 
building high pressure over north central Mexico and deepening 
low pressure over the lower Colorado River valley. Northerly 
swell will increase seas west of northern Baja California early 
next week as well. 

Looking ahead toward the middle of the week, broad low pressure
is expected to form along the monsoon trough beyond 240 nm off
Oaxaca and Guerrero. Environmental conditions are 
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression could form by the middle of next week as it moves 
west-northwestward, well south of the coast of southern Mexico. This
will support fresh easterly winds off Guerrero and Michoacan 
with seas building to 8 ft, but most of the main impacts of the 
developing low will remain west of the offshore areas.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to occasionally fresh SW winds will prevail
over the waters south of 10N into next week. Moderate to fresh 
gap winds will pulse through the Gulf of Papagayo through next 
week. Long period SW swell will gradually subside across the 
region through Mon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
 
Low pressure near 13N110W will shift westward along the
monsoon trough through early next week. Ridging will persist
north of the low, from 1028 mb high pressure near 37N138W to
south of Cabo San Lucas. The tight gradient between these
features will support fresh to strong NE winds within 240 nm in 
the northern semicircle of the low pressure, with seas to 9 ft. A
large area of moderate to fresh trade winds will persist north of
the monsoon trough to about 20N. Fresh to strong SW winds will 
also converge into the the southern flanks of low pressure south 
of the monsoon trough between 110W and 125W.

Long period cross-equatorial S to SW swell across most of the 
tropical east Pacific Ocean will gradually subside the next 
couple of days, with sea heights expected to be 5 to 7 ft. 

Looking ahead toward the middle of the week, broad low pressure
is expected to form along the monsoon trough near about 12N
between 105W and 110W by Tue. Environmental conditions are 
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression could form by the middle of next week as it moves 
west-northwestward. 

$$ 
Christensen