AXPZ20 KNHC 101605
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Aug 10 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 18.9N 109.8W at 10/1500
UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75
kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is within
240 nm ne quadrant, within 210 nm se quadrant, and within 180 nm
w semicircle. Elida is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane
tonight, then weaken back to a tropical storm Wed night, and
continue to weaken thereafter. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml
and Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details.
A tropical wave axis is near 85W/86W, extending southward from
the western Caribbean across Central America to 05N. The wave is
moving westward at 5-10 kt. Associated convection is described
in the section below. This tropical wave will be monitored over
the next several days as it has the potential to act as a
precursor for tropical cyclone development. There is a near zero
probability of cyclogenesis in the next two days, but there is a
medium probability within the next five days. Associated winds
and seas will increase to fresh to strong and around 8 ft from
Tue through Wed.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1010 mb low pressure
near 09N96W to 13N102W then resumes from 14N113W to 10N140W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
06N to 08N E of 80W, from 07N to 10N between 82W and 104W, from
10N to 16N between 92W and 100W, from 12N to 16N between 114W and
118W, and from 08N to 12N between 118W and 135W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the special features section above for more on
T.S. Elida. The system will bring increasing winds and seas over
portions of the offshore waters between Cabo Corrientes and Cabo
San Lucas, to include the entrance to the Gulf of California
and the Revillagigedo Islands today through Tue. Heavy rainfall,
rough surf, and dangerous rip currents are possible over coastal
areas as well.
Aside from T.S. Elida, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail
over much of the waters off Baja California north of Punta
Eugenia, supported by the pressure gradient between high pressure
west of the area and lower pressure over Mexico. Gentle to
moderate northerly flow continues from Punta Eugenia southward to
Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds are noted south of Baja
California Sur. Fresh to strong gap winds are noted in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate SE winds continue across the
Gulf of California.
Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the
waters north of 30N off Baja California Norte will diminish
through tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse for
the next several nights across the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough.
Fresh to locally strong gap winds, enhanced by the tropical wave
in the western Caribbean now crossing Central America, will prevail
across the Gulf of Papagayo. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft
The moderate southerly winds will persist south of the monsoon
trough for the next several days. Fresh to occasionally strong
winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the
middle of next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the special features section above for more
information about T.S. Elida.
The subtropical ridge extends across the waters north of 20N.
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted north of the
monsoon trough to near 20N and west of 120W, with gentle to
moderate breezes elsewhere north of the monsoon trough.
Farther south, monsoon flow has freshened south of the monsoon
trough between 100W and 120W. The locally generated wind waves
has combined with a subsiding southerly swell, maintaining seas
in the 6 to 8 ft range roughly from 05N and 10N between 105W and
Looking ahead, the active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation
will be propagating across the eastern North Pacific forecast
waters. This feature will produce a favorable large scale
environment for active convection which will elevate the
potential for tropical cyclone development in these waters over
the next couple of weeks. The National Hurricane Center will
closely monitor this situation.