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 Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion Atlantic | East Pacific 
AXNT20 KNHC 191006

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Apr 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0945 UTC.


Eastern Caribbean Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory is in 
effect for La Soufriere Volcano on St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W.
A new eruption occurred Sunday, and a plume of ash spread over the
eastern Caribbean from 13N to 14N between 61W and 63W. The 
volcano remains in a very active state, and additional eruptions 
and ash plumes are possible at any time. Mariners transiting the 
nearby waters should exercise caution and are encouraged to report
volcanic ash to the National Hurricane Center by calling 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near 
12N16W and continues southwestward to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues 
from 04N23W to 02N30W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 02S-04N between 08W-14W. 


A nearly stationary cold front stretches from near Tampa Bay,
Florida, to 26N90W, to the western Bay of Campeche. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted across a fairly
broad area of the eastern Gulf, from 23N to 28N, E of 89W. Fresh
NE winds are occurring to the NW of this boundary, with an area of
strong NW winds offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Seas in this region 
are 6-10 ft. Ahead of the front and within the Florida Straits, 
winds are SE moderate to fresh, while within the Yucatan Channel 
winds are fresh from the south. Seas ahead of the front and within
the far northeast Gulf are 2-4 ft. 

A nearly stationary front is noted from near Tampa Bay,
Florida, to 25N92W, to the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh to 
strong winds occurring west of this boundary across the southwest
Gulf will continue to diminish today. This front will remain 
nearly stationary into mid week, before reinforcing cool and dry 
air pushes the front into the far southeast Gulf from mid to late 


An Ashfall Advisory is in effect for La Soufriere volcano on the 
island of St. Vincent. See the special features section above 
for details.

Scattered moderate convection remains in the Gulf of Honduras,
otherwise dry air is supporting fair weather conditions over the
basin. A pressure gradient between lower pressure over Colombia 
and a surface high pressure over the central Atlantic extending 
into the northern Caribbean continues to support fresh to strong 
winds over the south-central basin with seas to 9 ft and moderate 
to locally fresh SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate trade 
winds with seas to 7 ft are elsewhere.

The ridge N of the area will shift east ahead of a weak front 
moving through the Gulf allowing trade winds to increase over 
mainly the south central Caribbean through mid week. Looking 
ahead, the trade winds will diminish by late week as the high 
pressure shifts eastward, although fresh to strong winds will 
persist off Colombia. 


A weak frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary off the 
coast of northeast Florida through the early part of the week, as a 
ridge extends westward from the central Atlantic through the central 
Bahamas. Broad gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow extends over the 
Atlantic north of 20N. South of 20N trades are moderate to fresh. 

Looking ahead, as the ridge shifts east by Wed, a slightly stronger 
frontal boundary will move off the southeast U.S. coast by Thu. This 
front will reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Thu 
night, then start to stall along 25N through Fri night as high 
pressure builds between northeast Florida and Bermuda.


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