AXNT20 KNHC 020507
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Aug 2 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W, south of 19N
and it is moving W near 10 kt. The wave is surrounded by dry and
dusty Saharan Air Layer, inhibiting the development of showers and
Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W, south of
19N and it is moving W near 15 kt. No convection is noted with
the wave at this time.
A third Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 54W, south of
14N, and it is moving W near 20 kt. This wave is enhancing the
development of showers and thunderstorms over NE South America.
A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 82W, south of 20N,
and it is moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 18N to the coast of central Cuba and between 78W and
A tropical wave extends from the W Bay of Campeche to the Eastern
Pacific. It has its axis along 96W, south of 20N and it is moving
W near 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave.
A monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N16W to 08N43W.
The ITCZ then continues from 08N44W to 05N53W, near the coast of
French Guiana. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200
nm south of the monsoon trough between 17W and 37W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Gulf of Mexico,
anchored by a 1019 mb high pressure system. Evening showers and
thunderstorms over the W Yucatan Peninsula are pushing westward
across the E Gulf of Campeche. These storms are already losing
strength and are expected to quickly diminish in coverage.
Moderate to occasionally fresh NE breezes are found in the E Bay
of Campeche and gentle to moderate elsewhere in the basin. Seas
are 1-2 ft in the Gulf. Finally, a weak surface trough was
located along the Big Bend region of Florida, extending to the NE
Gulf, but it has dissipated as of 0300 UTC. The rest of the basin
enjoys tranquil weather conditions.
For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the
next several days producing gentle to moderate winds. Moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula
into the Bay of Campeche every night through Thu night. A cold
front is forecast to reach the northern Gulf of Mexico late Mon
into Tue. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the frontal
boundary Mon and Tue.
The pressure gradient between the 1033 mb Azores high and lower
pressures over northern South America is supporting fresh to
strong trade winds across the central Caribbean Sea. Seas in the
central Caribbean are 6-10 ft. Meanwhile, scattered moderate
convection is noted from within 80 nm of the coasts of NW
Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and SE Nicaragua. Fairly tranquil
weather conditions prevail across the rest of the basin, with
gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3-6 ft.
For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores high combined with the
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds
in the south-central Caribbean through Tue morning with seas
building to 10 or 11 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds will
prevail the remainder of the week. A tropical wave moving into the
western Caribbean will support some shower and thunderstorm
activity tonight and Mon.
An expansive 1033 mb high pressure system positioned near the
Azores continues to support fairly tranquil weather conditions
across the tropical Atlantic. The only exception is a small area
of scattered moderate convection off NE Florida, from 28N to 30N
and west of 78W. A recent scatterometer pass show moderate to
fresh S-SW winds in the area. The scatterometer satellite pass
also depicts moderate to locally fresh trades from north of
Hispaniola to the eastern Bahamas. In the remainder of the
tropical Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate anticyclonic
winds prevail with 3-6 ft seas. East of 35W, fresh to strong winds
are prevalent with 6-10 ft seas. However, near gale winds are
noted surrounding the Canary Islands and off the coast of Morocco.
Finally, a surface trough is located north of the Leeward
Islands, along 61W, from 20N to 29N, and it is not producing
convection at this time.
For the forecast W of 65W, the Bermuda-Azores high will dominate
the forecast waters over the next several days. Fresh to locally
strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including approaches
to the Windward Passage through Fri. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds will prevail off the NE Florida coast ahead of a frontal
boundary through Wed.