AXPZ20 KNHC 020837
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Aug 2 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane Hilda is centered near 15.3N 122.1W
at 02/0900 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with
gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 28 ft. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 119W and 125W.
A turn toward the northwest is expected today, before Hilda is
forecast to recurve back to the west after midweek. Weakening is
expected to continue and Hilda is likely to become a tropical
storm by Tue. Peak seas of 25 to 30 will prevail into tonight.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical Depression Ten-E is centered
near 18.0N 113.4W at 02/0900 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are around 13 ft, and
similar seas should continue through tonight. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is noted from 15N to 19N between 112W and
115W. A WNW track is forecast to continue for the next several
days. Strengthening is forecast today, and the depression is
likely to become a tropical storm. Weakening could begin Tue
morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for
An area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Tropical
Depression Nine-E is located near 13N129W. Although disorganized,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
08N to 14N between 126W to 134W. Aside from its proximity to
Hurricane Hilda, somewhat favorable environmental conditions
could allow this system to redevelop into a tropical depression
early this week as it moves WNW or NW at around 5 kt. There is a
moderate chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours.
A tropical wave is noted along 98W, extending from 05N into
Guerrero, Mexico, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 90W
A tropical wave is noted in the far eastern Pacific along 84W,
from 04N into Costa Rica, moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate
to strong convection remains from 06N to the coasts of Panama
and Costa Rica between 79W and 85W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 09N93W to 12N11W. The
monsoon trough is reforming from 10N135W to 10N140W. Convection
in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is primarily associated
with features described in the Special Features and Tropical Wave
sections above, except scattered moderate convection from 07N to
11N between 85W to 90W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
See Special Features section above for information on Tropical
Depression Ten-E, located about 420 nm SSW of the southern tip of
Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends from a 1033 mb high near
37N146W southeastward to 18N124W. NE to N winds over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec are fresh. There are moderate NW winds to the west
of Baja California del Norte. For the remainder of the area,
winds are gentle or weaker across the Mexican offshores and the
Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Mexican offshores
and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, tropical Depression Ten-E is located near
18.0N 113.4W 1006 mb at 2 AM PDT moving WNW at 9 kt. Maximum
sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Ten-E will strengthen to a
tropical storm near 18.7N 114.9W this afternoon, weaken to a
tropical depression near 19.6N 116.5W Tue morning, become a
remnant low and move to 20.3N 117.7W Tue afternoon, 20.5N 118.3W
Wed morning, and dissipate Wed afternoon. Elsewhere, high
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure farther to
the south will support fresh pulses of N gap winds across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec into tonight.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA,
COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Papagayo region
with winds moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft across
the Central American and equatorial offshore zones.
For the forecast, Fresh NE to E gap winds will continue today
over the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, quiescent winds should
prevail through late week, with winds moderate or less and seas
of 5 to 7 ft.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
See the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane
Hilda, and Tropical Depression Ten-E, and the remnants of
Tropical Depression Nine-E.
Surface ridging extends from a 1033 mb high near 37N146W
southeastward to 17N124W. NE trades south of the ridge and
north of the monsoon trough are generally moderate, except closer
to the tropical cyclones, where some fresh winds are occurring.
South of the monsoon trough S winds are also generally moderate.
Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except for seas 6-8 ft south of the
equator and east of 120W due to SW swell. Winds and seas over
some sections of the area will be impacted by the tropical
cyclones detailed in the Special Features during the next several